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Abstract Forest characteristics, structure, and dynamics within the North American boreal region are heavily influenced by wildfire intensity, severity, and frequency. Increasing temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions and longer fire seasons, potentially leading to more intense and frequent fires. However, an increase in deciduous forest cover is also predicted across the region, potentially decreasing flammability. In this study, we use an individual tree-based forest model to test bottom-up (i.e. fuels) vs top-down (i.e. climate) controls on fire activity and project future forest and wildfire dynamics. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced is an individual tree-based forest model that has been successfully updated and validated within the North American boreal zone. We updated the model to better characterize fire ignition and behavior in relation to litter and fire weather conditions, allowing for further interactions between vegetation, soils, fire, and climate. Model output following updates showed good agreement with combustion observations at individual sites within boreal Alaska and western Canada. We then applied the updated model at sites within interior Alaska and the Northwest Territories to simulate wildfire and forest response to climate change under moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) scenarios. Results suggest that changing climate will act to decrease biomass and increase deciduous fraction in many regions of boreal North America. These changes are accompanied by decreases in fire probability and average fire intensity, despite fuel drying, indicating a negative feedback of fuel loading on wildfire. These simulations demonstrate the importance of dynamic fuels and dynamic vegetation in predicting future forest and wildfire conditions. The vegetation and wildfire changes predicted here have implications for large-scale changes in vegetation composition, biomass, and wildfire severity across boreal North America, potentially resulting in further feedbacks to regional and even global climate and carbon cycling. 

Abstract. Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadianboreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change,which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the regionfrom a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically important totrack the spatiotemporal changes in burned area and fire carbon emissionsover time. Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m (meters) resolution thatutilizes finer-scale 30 m Landsat imagery to account for land coverunsuitable for burning. This method strictly balances omission andcommission errors at 500 m to derive accurate landscape- and regional-scaleburned-area estimates. Using this new burned-area product, we developedstatistical models to predict burn depth and carbon combustion for the sameperiod within the NASA Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) coreand extended domain. Statistical models were constrained using a database offield observations across the domain and were related to a variety ofresponse variables including remotely sensed indicators of fire severity,fire weather indices, local climate, soils, and topographic indicators. Theburn depth and aboveground combustion models performed best, with poorerperformance for belowground combustion. We estimate 2.37×106 ha (2.37 Mha) burned annually between 2001–2019 over the ABoVE domain (2.87 Mhaacross all of Alaska and Canada), emitting 79.3 ± 27.96 Tg (±1standard deviation) of carbon (C) per year, with a mean combustionrate of 3.13 ± 1.17 kg C m−2. Mean combustion and burn depthdisplayed a general gradient of higher severity in the northwestern portionof the domain to lower severity in the south and east. We also found larger-fire years and later-season burning were generally associated with greatermean combustion. Our estimates are generally consistent with previousefforts to quantify burned area, fire carbon emissions, and their drivers inregions within boreal North America; however, we generally estimate higherburned area and carbon emissions due to our use of Landsat imagery, greateravailability of field observations, and improvements in modeling. The burnedarea and combustion datasets described here (the ABoVE Fire EmissionsDatabase, or ABoVE-FED) can be used for local- to continental-scaleapplications of boreal fire science. 

Abstract. Permafrost-affected ecosystems of the Arctic–boreal zone in northwestern North America are undergoing profound transformation due to rapid climate change. NASA's Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) is investigating characteristics that make these ecosystems vulnerable or resilient to this change. ABoVE employs airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) as a powerful tool to characterize tundra, taiga, peatlands, and fens. Here, we present an annotated guide to the L-band and P-band airborne SAR data acquired during the 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 ABoVE airborne campaigns. We summarize the ∼80 SAR flight lines and how they fit into the ABoVE experimental design (Miller et al., 2023; https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2150). The Supplement provides hyperlinks to extensive maps, tables, and every flight plan as well as individual flight lines. We illustrate the interdisciplinary nature of airborne SAR data with examples of preliminary results from ABoVE studies including boreal forest canopy structure from TomoSAR data over Delta Junction, AK, and the Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites (BERMS) area in northern Saskatchewan and active layer thickness and soil moisture data product validation. This paper is presented as a guide to enable interested readers to fully explore the ABoVE L- and P-band airborne SAR data (https://uavsar.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data.pl). 

Grassland monitoring can be challenging because it is time-consuming and expensive to measure grass condition at large spatial scales. Remote sensing offers a time- and cost-effective method for mapping and monitoring grassland condition at both large spatial extents and fine temporal resolutions. Combinations of remotely sensed optical and radar imagery are particularly promising because together they can measure differences in moisture, structure, and reflectance among land cover types. We combined multi-date radar (PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-1) and optical (Sentinel-2) imagery with field data and visual interpretation of aerial imagery to classify land cover in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya using machine learning (Random Forests). This study area comprises a diverse array of land cover types and changes over time due to seasonal changes in precipitation, seasonal movements of large herds of resident and migratory ungulates, fires, and livestock grazing. We classified twelve land cover types with user’s and producer’s accuracies ranging from 66%–100% and an overall accuracy of 86%. These methods were able to distinguish among short, medium, and tall grass cover at user’s accuracies of 83%, 82%, and 85%, respectively. By yielding a highly accurate, fine-resolution map that distinguishes among grasses of different heights, this work not only outlines a viable method for future grassland mapping efforts but also will help inform local management decisions and research in the Masai Mara National Reserve. 

Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years. 

Abstract Northern peatlands play an important role in the global C cycle due to their large C stocks and high potential methane (CH₄) emissions. The CH₄and CO₂cycles of these systems are closely linked to hydrology, with water table level regulating the balance of oxic and anoxic conditions and the water content ofSphagnummosses that dominate primary production. Previous work has demonstrated that hyperspectral indices well‐suited to the detection of altered hydrology inSphagnumpeatlands are also highly correlated with GPP. However, little work has been done to extend these findings to CH₄effluxes. In this study, we evaluate the utility of four hyperspectral indices, two reflecting vegetation photosynthetic function (chlorophyll index (CI); normalized difference vegetation index) and two reflecting water content (wetness index (WI); floating water band index), for detecting effects of altered water table, precipitation, and vegetation community on CH₄and CO₂exchange in two peatland mesocosm studies. We found that CI is a good predictor of net CO₂exchange, and that it captured both drought and vegetation effects consistently across a broad range of vegetation treatments. Further, we demonstrate for the first time that WI combined with CI explained a significant percentage of CH₄efflux (R² = 0.32–0.57). Our results indicate that CI and WI together may be effective tools for detecting effects of altered hydrology and vegetation on northernSphagnum‐peatland CH₄and CO₂emissions, with implications for detecting and modeling changes in emissions of greenhouse gases at scales ranging from the ecosystem to the Earth system.